Author Archives: One of the ten percent

World Trade Center Scientific Truth

I watched a recently added documentary about the Trade Center and of, obviously, 9/11.  I’ve watched many documentaries and news stories, of course, through the years, and every single time, I cry, even after all this time.  This documentary was called 9/11 Explosive Evidence-Experts Speak Out.  If you haven’t seen it, watch it.  It’s on Amazon.  I was enthralled, because these were educated, experienced scientists from specific backgrounds, people with centuries of experience, collectively.  These were people you want to listen to.

I am a scientist at heart:  That’s how my brain is wired, that’s part of my education, and where I spent the lion’s share of my corporate life.  Science.  In general, I like to know why.  Why anything, why everything.  I am naturally curious and I just like to know why things happen the way they do.  This is the one and only reason I’d like to live another century: To learn more stuff.   In the case of our national tragedy, I allowed emotion to overtake my logical side, and I just believed what I was told.  That was a mistake.

After having watched many documentaries, I have finally had to face cold, hard facts of science, which clearly indicate that jets did not bring down THREE world trade center buildings: Explosives did.  Now wait.  Stay with me here.  I am not a wacko conspiracy theorist and I do not believe our government is responsible for the deaths of thousands of American civilians.  But I do believe, because the science cannot be denied, that explosives were involved in the collapse of the North and South towers, and building 7.  You don’t have to believe me; look at the electron microscope images and x-ray spectra!  I worked with SEM and x-ray micro-analysis for years.  I know what I’m looking at.  Then watch building 7 fall.  Watch the penthouse go over and down first, INTO the building, and then watch the building collapse into free fall (impossible if it was due to a fire related collapse) onto its own footprint.  NIST said the collapse started on the lower left front of the building.  If that was true, the building would have fallen forward and to the left.  No.  That building fell due to CONTROLLED DEMOLITION.  That, in and of itself, is the “smoking gun” as one interviewee said.  I agreed, and nearly shouted with shock.

Many of the speakers in this documentary were engineers and architects, civil engineers, physicists, chemists, materials specialists, explosives experts, and my favorites, electron microscope analysts.  Clearly, there is a mountain of evidence that there were explosives (Thermite) involved, to the extent that pretty much any sample of dust or paint you can find, has microscopic bits of evidence pointing to thermite.  But beyond that, fundamental physical FACTS, if presented in a logical way, certainly show that the planes were “red herrings”.  They were there to create a huge distraction from the truth, which was that these buildings were demolished, in a controlled and well thought out manner.  They fell because a team of people, over some period of time, planted explosives in those buildings (and maybe others) and detonated them when the planes hit the buildings…except building 7, which “collapsed” later.  If you watch this documentary, you will see these buildings’ collapses in a way you haven’t seen before, think about it in a way you haven’t thought about it before.  And as for building 7, well there’s a reason we didn’t see much about THAT in the news:  There was no red herring, no jet flying into the building.  There was just a blatant planned demolition!  NIST actually stated that building 7 collapsed because of burning office furniture and interior structures.  ARE YOU KIDDING ME?  Last time I checked, a fire like that doesn’t burn at 2700 degrees.  And if it DID, no way the steel would melt, all of it, at exactly the same rate, allowing the building to free fall into its own footprint.  Not possible.  Work with me now: The parts of the building farthest away from the fires would fall intact, last.  Didn’t happen.

What disturbs me most about this path to the truth for me is this:  Most of the PhDs insinuate that there are TWO stories: 1) that we have been fed a line by our government that is NOT the truth; so therefore 2) the government must be the ones who did the deed.  That’s hogwash.  Wouldn’t  you want to believe that these talking heads would at least entertain the POSSIBILITY that we WERE lied to, and that there is a DIFFERENT possibility?  This is called “groupthink” folks, when one “good” idea is put forth and everyone jumps on that bandwagon, at the expense of the “best” idea, which is left unfound and unexamined.  Happens all the time.  And you can bet your booty that the government spin doctors know people have narrow lenses.  They know people won’t THINK.  Let this be a lesson to you:  PhD’s don’t alway know everything.  While you’re at it, remember this lesson:  Don’t stop at the first idea. Keep digging.  The best idea probably hasn’t been found yet.

Consider this: I believe that the government DID feed us a line of untruths, aided by NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and others, BECAUSE they knew we couldn’t handle the real truth.  In my opinion, that’s why the powers that be were so quick to remove evidence before it could be thoroughly examined.  Listen, there HAD to be HUNDREDS of experts who knew, beyond a SHADOW of a doubt, that those buildings were BLOWN UP.  People HEARD the explosions.  I can imagine some of the demolition experts hearing those sounds and RUNNING to phones.  Running.

We can debate about what happened afterward all decade and never figure that out, but I believe that the ‘government’ decided Americans couldn’t handle the truth:  That there are explosives experts who can come into downtown Manhattan and bring down your safe building in seconds, without you even knowing they were there. Then they can leave, and plan their next ‘event’.  Wouldn’t that shake our world more than air travel?  We think we’re safe because of all of these new procedures at airports.  Yes, they are needed.  But what about your workplace?

Perhaps the government used this story, the one about the planes dropping the buildings, as a reason for us to jump on board with war.  Either way, countries that seek to destroy our nation, to kill us, need to be stopped.  Do we fight back because of planes, or do we fight back because of explosive experts?  War is war.  Doesn’t matter.  What does matter is that Americans now feel we have some level of control of our destiny, some amount of “safety” because we get patted down before we fly.  Well, nobody’s patting down anybody in high rise buildings.  And there goes, my friends, our safety.  And maybe that is why (idea THREE) 1) the government lied to us; and 2) they were NOT involved.

Imagine that: Another possibility.

Remember that in 1993, there was an attempt to bring down the world trade center with explosives.  Remember that?  I called that “practice” when it happened.  And I said, “You watch.  They will get it right”.  And they did.  When nobody was looking, they did.  I don’t have a PhD and I could see that coming.  I said, “Give them 10 more years”.  It took them 11.  Again, no PhD.

We  have been told that 19 Fundamentalist Muslims brought down the twin towers and building 7.  I’m here to say that those 19 men were the red herrings, the ones sent to distract attention from the REAL terrorist teams, who got into three of the largest buildings in our country, planted explosives, and demolished those buildings in controlled explosions, dropping them in seconds, killing thousands, and terrorizing a nation.  Imagine if you dare, how frightening THAT scenario is.  And, if I’m right, they GOT AWAY WITH IT.  Or did they?

In this documentary, there are lots of government experts, talking (on video in the aftermath of the event).  Now, you get to listen to their line, compared to the science that has been done in the last 16 years, and compare them.  I felt like I’d been punched in the gut.  And I cried.  The “official” story about how materials behave in certain conditions was an outright fairy tale.  You can’t change the laws of physics.  And for the first time, these laws, and analyst experts about them, present their results.  Irrefutable.  AND they state the laws about which they pontificate.  Just in case you were wondering.  Great stuff.

I believe there actually was a “true” investigation.  I believe our government knows the absolute truth about 9/11 and I think they knew it FAST.  And when the PhDs say that Americans need to know the truth?  I’m not so sure.  Think about how frightening the truth is if I’m right…and I’d bet a big chunk of money that I am.

The majority of Americans don’t fly every day, but a majority DO go into big buildings every day, and imagine if any/every one of those buildings could drop within its footprint in less than 10 seconds.  If you think about that, you will know why we don’t want our kids and grandkids thinking about that scenario.  What we were given to think about, was enough.

I guess the gist of this blog is this: I make it my JOB to try to examine multiple facets.  So I watch for groupthink.  And I am furious when top of the tree experts get so narrowly focused that they miss the forest for the trees.   Watch the documentary and don’t believe people when they say there are two stories.  There are ALWAYS more.  And not that it matters to anybody  but me, but it took a LONG time for me to really look at the elephant in the room and THINK about it, with the aid of some fine experts and a great documentary.

It Isn’t JUST Target…

We’re hearing rumblings in the news about the problems Target is having with their company performance.  Seems like they are circling the bowl.  You can feel this angst when you go into their stores, which have fallen off the rails as their stock tumbles too.  Once upon a time, Target stores were clean, employees were engaged and happy; it was a great place to shop.  Now it’s like walking into the place where a fight just broke up.  You can feel the difference.  Then  there’s Amazon, and disgruntled employees, helping to nail the coffin lid.  In a way, there’s a bit of poetic justice happening here, because many of these department stores deserve what they are getting and most of their employees would agree.

First of all, employees, even supervisors, are paid embarrassing wages, but are pushed like pack mules to meet so-called “stretch” goals.  Well, in the corporate world, stretch goals make sense, because they are within reach with the right resources and motivation; but these “stretch” goals in retail seem to be deliberately set at a level ridiculously impossible…impossible… to reach, largely because the people setting them don’t know how to manage effectively and don’t know what a stretch goal actually is.  Instead they have one ‘public’ stretch goal and one wink wink goal that’s the REAL goal just for the managers, after the employees are jerked around and bullied when everyone knows the goal is not possible to reach.  What you get as a result is a bunch of otherwise good employees who know their managers are full of it AND dishonest, and who give up. And after all, what IS the point?  I have seem people pushed to tears to try to meet impossible goals, and I have seen employees torn apart because they needed surgery or had to be out for serious reasons.  Terrible.

The idea of terrorizing your workforce into excellent performance only works in North Korea.  In AMERICA, it’s not rocket science to understand that if you are going to pay a pittance and call it a wage, you need to make employees happy.  In the words of Jack Welch, “Reward them early and often”.  He also said you get RID of deadwood.  You do that because it is BAD BUSINESS to hire slugs and pay them the same wage as the stallions who are making things happen.  Duh.  But retail stores do that all the time!  They hang on to people who won’t work and make everyone else work harder. That’s one huge morale buster.  And bad morale is NOT undetectable by shoppers.

Stores like Target need to HIRE better.  I have heard it said a hundred times, “This was all we had to choose from”.  Bull.  If you don’t have good candidates, don’t hire anybody.  KEEP LOOKING.  Yes, the disgusting wage is the FIRST problem, but there are people who actually WANT to work looking for jobs.  Hire them.  If stores aren’t getting them in the applicant pool, fire the ad guys and hire some who can attract the kind of workers they need.  This is not rocket science.  And seriously, seven bucks an hour?  What do they expect?

While we are taking about hiring, it’s a BAD idea to promote people into management because just they are young girls with long blonde hair.  And it’s a BAD idea to force older employees out.  Those are types of discrimination. Agism, among other types of discrimination, is against the law…and Target paid a LOT of money for discriminatory hiring and workforce practices, according the news.  I have been amazed to see older employees at MY Target (where I rarely go), and by the way, that workforce now looks like ME…another ‘DUH” good idea.  It is IMPERATIVE to have a diverse workforce!  Get this:  Young employees are not going to stick around.  Don’t believe me?  Do the stats if you even know how, managers.  And they are particularly not going to stick around if they are bullied and terrorized, unless they are bullies.  Young people typically use retail as a stepping stone to BETTER jobs.  So if you want to keep your trained employees, how about this?  Make them happy!  Think different.  Steve Jobs said that.

Making employees happy doesn’t mean giving them control of the store; it means figure out what would be a good reward and then distribute that reward FAIRLY, for actual great performance, NOT to favorite buddies.  Retail is a lot like junior high school, really, and that needs to stop. It’s a serious business and it’s in trouble everywhere.  Time to grow up.

Here’s an idea:  HIRE MANAGERS  who actually HAVE management training.  I am not talking about somebody who hung in there long enough that it’s just time to promote them.  Just because someone worked in the store for ten years does not make them worthy of a management position.  And giving someone a management position just so they won’t get MAD is just plain stupid.  I’ve witnessed bullying, harassment, temper tantrums, downright meanness, fear of discipling slugs who work harder AVOIDING work than actually working (and taking it out on the ones who do work).  I’ve seen managers who are afraid of creative thinking, managers who are abusive to employees, managers who got the job because they were cute, or gosh, they’ve been here for twenty years so they MUST be a great manager.  And then they get busted for stealing.  No wonder they are in trouble.  The successful businesses are run like businesses, not like junior high school.

I have watched “managers” make themselves sick over a “plan-o-gram” and completely miss the sales numbers which show that the “plan” isn’t working.  Listen, it doesn’t do any good to impress a team of district ‘managers’ if the store is dying.  A good looking corpse is still a corpse, and eventually, that corpse store starts giving up and just accepting death.  That’s when you walk in, take a look around and just leave…and order online.  I did that at Belk recently.  It just wasn’t worth slogging through the disaster to find anything.  I took one look around and left.  I knew some “manager’s” head was getting fitted for the chopping block.  Think about it.  Costco is a warehouse and it’s booming.  It’s not pretty, but by golly they are selling…and their employees are happy, the store is neat and clean, and you can’t find a place to park in the parking lot.   Why?  They  pay a decent wage, they provide good benefits and they get GOOD people to work there.  Clearly the most important thing his not which shirt hangs on the front rack.  It’s amusing to see the failing stores break every management 101 rule and try to whip and bully employees into success.  It is actually almost fun to watch.

Next:  Retail will beat the crap out of you.  You work HARD in retail if you are not a store manager.  So, managers should try to be flexible with the schedule, since the store pays in PENNIES and in fact, time off might be a great reward.  Find out what schedule people WANT to work and try to accommodate that.  If you have some, ANY creativity, you could make that work.   If it takes  a manger a day to ‘do the schedule’, then there’s a PROBLEM with how schedules get done!  NOT rocket science.  TRY ANOTHER WAY.  No, retail is a think in the tiny little box world and that is one reason they will fail.

Finally,  employees should have the right to deck any manager who takes out his or her bad morning on the employees the minute they walk in the door.  It seems to be acceptable…and I say it’s because these people have zip management training…to treat people worse than I’ve seen anyone treated.  Workplace harassment is also against the law.  Good to know, “managers”.

Target needs to raise their wage, diversify the workforce, make it possible for employees to give valid feedback about what’s happening out there…and listen.   Do you think when they do their “surveys” and ask your age, gender and ethnicity, they don’t know exactly whom you are?  Retail deliberately skew their “valued feedback” by subtle bullying in their supposedly anonymous, MANDATORY, surveys.  If you are a ship captain, do you WANT to know if your ship is leaking, or do you want to be worshipped?  Don’t answer that. I already know.

The only thing department stores have to do to survive is to make shoppers WANT to go to their store.  Shoppers want to FEEL good when they go to the store; and make no mistake about it, unhappy workers change the FEELING.  Pay them, get rid of bully managers, stop the rah rah sis boom bah meetings and treat employees with dignity and respect instead.  Hire good workers; fire the slugs.  Reward the good employees, and by the way, a nickel more an hour is NOT a reward; it’s an insult.

I shopped at Home Depot the other day, and a young man came to my line with a scanner and a stack of cards.  He scanned my purchase item while the person ahead checked out, and by the time I got to the register, all the check out person had to do was scan my card. Meanwhile the POLITE young man was scanning the stuff of other shoppers in line and giving them cards.  He was engaging, happy, actually treated the customers like he was happy to see us.   Now that makes me want to go back.  See?  Simple.

Post Cord-Cutting

Remember when I told you I got Roku?  Well I never even look at that now.  It’s all antenna TV, Netflix and Amazon…and Netflix is close to the chopping block.  We really are like a bunch of mules on the cart path you know.  Somewhere along the line, cable companies convinced us that we NEEDED their TV services so they could gouge us financially.  Well I’m here to tell you, the weaning process works.  There are a lot of other, better things to do than watch cable TV…which equals COMMERCIALS!

I’ll tell you wha’t I’m enjoying on Netflix and Amazon:  British tv.  I’m getting to know some of the wonderful actors and even have some favorites that I hate waiting for the next season to post.  Check it out.  If you like Idris Alba, I found him a long time ago on Brit TV and fell in love with him as Luther.

Life without cable TV?  EXCELLENT still.

State of the Housing Market in the Triangle

Hi everyone!  I thought I’d touch base and talk a little bit about the housing market in the Raleigh NC area.  We are experiencing a hot market here, and also a housing shortage.  Anyone who lived through the crash as a realtor or builder, predicted this situation, because so many builders went out of business and because so many “cheap” homes were bought as either rentals or primary residences as the market righted itself.  NOW, however, we are experiencing the slinky effect.  There simply are not enough houses to satisfy demand here.

We lost a lot of builders and developers in the crash, and I assume many never came back, although many did.  I see many of the same names pounding out spec homes and custom builds, but they can’t keep up with demand. Interest rates have been at historic lows, fueling the feeding frenzy, and now, there are not enough existing homes either.  Baby Boomers are asking for one-level living, and requests for senior living communities are raging.  This situation could also have been predicted, although you wouldn’t think so by the scramble to supply this need.

I drove around some of the older communities and knocked on doors, encouraging people who owned older ranch-style homes to list with me, because not only could I sell their house in the blink of an eye, but also,they could buy a home at a very low interest rate.  Problem is, now there AREN’T any homes for them to move to if they do sell their ranch style home if they want to be under 200 thousand.

So we’re in a bit of a pickle.  Trying to find a home under 200 thousand that’s within a reasonable commute distance is next to impossible, although there are some town homes coming on line under 160 thousand that will not force a huge commute to work. Problem is: Townhouse are two story. Baby boomers want one story.

So.  We talk money.  Because of the supply/demand discord, prices are jumping.  It’s easy for me to list at the top of the price range indicated by a market analysis, and often get at or above list price offers!  This is great for sellers, and kind of a balancing of the universe; because these folks took a beating in the crash.  Senior communities are popping up all around, just getting off the ground really, but they are priced so high that many of my clients who might want that kind of home laugh and go another direction.  People moving to a fixed income  lifestyle often can’t easily afford a starting price in the 400’s.  I do hear that DR Horton is starting an over 55 community in this area priced under 200.  Now we’re talking.

So it’s as hot, crazy market.  If you are thinking of selling, call me.  We should start by talking about what you want to go TO, and makes sure we can find it for you.  Because if we list your home, chances are it’ll fly off the market faster than you may want it to!  But it’ll fly at a higher price than you might think too!

 

Statistics on Home Sales

Articles on home sales fill the internet lately, and most people cite those statistics without doing a deeper dive, or having the background information to interpret the data.  But it is imperative that you know where the numbers come from that influence your decisions related to buying a home, or selling your existing home, or both.  And it is important that you understand your market well enough to truly understand what the data is telling you, or whether it even applies.

I just read a article that said existing home sales are down 2.6%.  For many, that would be the end of the story.  But in my market, if existing home sales are down at all, it is definitely not due to the economy; it is because there is a shortage of listings.  In other words, MANY realtors have clients standing in line to buy existing homes, but there just aren’t any available to buy in their price point.  IMPORTANT: If you are thinking of selling YOUR existing home, this is GREAT news for you!  Supply is low and demand is VERY high.  This means many thousands more dollars in your pocket!  So in this case a 2.6% drop is not bad news. In fact, it’s a reason to celebrate.  And that is in the Raleigh/Triangle market, not in Chattanooga.

Something else to consider is seasonal effect on data.  Most folks don’t want to have their home on the market for sale during November and December, because of the holidays.  And during summer vacation time, it’s not unusual to see a slow down in buying activity.  It doesn’t predict gloom and doom for the market; rather, data predict typical human habits and traditions.  I always have homes closing over both Thanksgiving and Christmas, so some folks clearly take advantage of the lower supply of homes and they list, or they take advantage of the holiday slowdown to take advantage of buying at potentially a lower price.  See how this works?  Make the data work in your favor by understanding it.

The other thing you need to dig out of these articles is the source of the data.  I just looked at a chart showing lowest time on the market for existing homes.  I know our time on the market here is much lower, on average, than what the chart showed.  So I found the small print and saw that the data came from San Francisco CA, Billings MT, Chattanooga TN.  This data had NOTHING to do with our local market.  So be sure you know where these “stats” come from.  In fact, in some neighborhoods, I can almost predict when a home will go under contract, based on that community’s time on the market.  In the last case I examined, time on the market was about 40 days, lower than that chart indicated from these other areas.

The bottom line is this, and you’ve heard it a thousand times: Real estate is local.  Now that sounds a bit ridiculous, right?  But the saying is packed with truth.  What happens in San Francisco has nothing to do with us, here in the Raleigh/Triangle market.  Each day we have 60+ people moving here, needing homes.  EACH DAY.  So our market is always healthy, or healthier, than markets anywhere else in the US.  This means if the economy crashes, we will slow down, but not as much as most other markets in the whole country.  So don’t be afraid to buy, and I will beg:  Please list your existing home.  I can sell it!  I probably have a buyer waiting.

The Amazing Antenna

Every once in a while I amuse myself.  You guys know I cut the cord a while back, and that I’ve been learning to juggle the Roku box I got instead.  Now I like Roku just fine and I can set it up to scroll through past news segments, but getting real-time news was a head scratcher.  I found that I missed being able to watch live, local news on TV and I missed weather reports, particularly when we had a storm system bearing down on us.

So I got Sling TV.  Not really impressed.  I find that it’s not well organized for my taste, too cumbersom to navigate through, to me.  I’m just not in love with it. I aim high.  I’m not going to keep Sling TV  because I got this great gadget called an antenna!  It’s called SLIVR and it comes with a booster, which I am sure you need.  Easy to hook up, good for receiving signals from within a 55 mile radius.  RADIUS.  That’s a long way.  And, there’s an app (oh big surprise) for finding all of the broadcast towers WITHIN that 55 mile radius, so you know which way to aim the antenna.  Well why not.  And you can effect the channels you receive by which way you aim the antenna.  Only one direction picks up QVC so guess which way I turn it.

Installation instructions looked too easy, which immediately made me suspicious because I didn’t need an allen wrench or washers or pegs, like most self-builds do. But it really was that easy.  Boom!  Local TV.  Clear as a bell.  AND…there’s a channel that broadcasts a TON of the really old shows, like Lariat, Wagon Train, Bewitched, F-Troop, a channel that’s all crime shows. Heaven, really.  OH, and also weather and news, which was the whole point to begin with.  I got mine hooked up just in time for “the great blizzard of 2017” (one inch ice/one inch snow).  I know.

Now the ‘amusing’ part.  I was telling someone how great this antenna is, and it’s FREE to watch these channels.  I’m not even sure how many there are but it’s more than three.  You get where I’m going with this.  While I was talking about how I LOVE my antenna, I had to stop and laugh.  Yeah, antenna, like EVERYONE used before the advent of cable, those wretched grinches.  So yeah, antenna use is nothing new; it’s just coming around again.  And of course I HIGHLY recommend it.  Amusing, isn’t it, that we completely forgot about antennae, that there were free broadcasts out there?  I feel like a mule on the cart path, really. I’ve been duped!

But now, I get to watch commercials again (nothing is perfect) and above all I get the Bosley Hair Replacement commercials. How did I live without THEM?  If I hear “This is MY hair, I can wash this hair” one more time I’m going to scream.  You guys know:  I scream at my TV all the time.  But NOW I scream at NO CHARGE.  Life is good.

So I think the best combo is just Netflix, Amazon (apps on smart TVs) and an antenna.  Boom.  Drop the remote.

Interest Rates on the Rise, BUT…

It should come as no surprise that interest rates are on the rise.  This means that a house payment you could afford six months ago might be out of your range now.  It’s still a great time to buy a home, though, because rates are still at record lows.  I’ve had some conversations lately that made me remember that the interest rate when I bought my first home was around 17%.  I know.

My professional advice is to visit your preferred lender IN PERSON, and have a conversation about the different kinds of loans out there, and get several estimates, based on increasing rates.  Understand that there are MANY different types of loans, including, yes, adjustable rate ones.  My first mortgage was an adjustable rate loan, but my rate was frozen for four years, and could only adjust upward one percent per adjustment period afterward.  Good.  At that time rates were SURE to go down anyway, but before the adjustment, I refinanced to a conventional loan with a fixed rate.  And just so you know, there were a plethora of adjustable rate choices at that time.  I’ve used a balloon loan too.  Low fixed rate up front for a period, after which the entire amount comes due.  But you just FINANCE that amount, and the risk, of course, is what the rates will be at that time.  In my cases, they always went down, which was a calculate risk on my part.

If you’re not comfortable with risk, then these adjustable rates or balloon loans are not for you.  But the point is that there are other ways to calculate your payment than just a straight, 30 year, conventional loan.  So take a couple of hours and visit a loan officer.  You’ll be amazed at what’s out there.

Adjustable rate mortgages got a bad reputation in the aftermath of the real estate market crash…which should be called the Wall Street Greed crash…because lenders were writing loans that never should have seen the light of day and would land somebody in jail today.  Note that they did that, often, at the behest of Wall Street brokers who needed sub-prime loans to fill tranches blah blah blah.   HOWEVER…not all adjustables are bad.  If you are responsible and do your homework, an adjustable rate mortgage can be a way to beat the rising rates for the short term.  But you will need to be in a good financial position to refinance when the time comes.

Bottom line is this:  In our market here in the Triangle, every seller expects a loan approval letter (some a pre qualification letter) to accompany your offer to purchase, otherwise your offer might be rejected immediately.  So you’ve had to have at least one conversation with a lender in order to get that.  Make it a meaningful conversation, a deep dive into your options…all of them…so that you get the most bang for your hard earned bucks.  In other words, don’t let rising rates put you out your dream of buying a home.  There are GOOD ways for responsible buyers to nab a low rate.

Cutting the Cord, tee hee hee

News is hitting the investment platforms, finally, admitting that cable is hemorrhaging customers and the stock is starting to roll down the hill.  By this time next year they can post a counter.  And I have to say I’m glad about it.  I don’t own the stock, and wouldn’t on principle.

Some radio show hosts call cell phone customer service providers “customere no service”, but that really should apply to cable companies.  Think about it.  If you are brave enough or unfortunate enough to go TO the brick and mortar shop, you get to take a number and wait an hour, while six to eight employees take turns offering three service providers to the crowd.  It would be nice if all eight of them would get it in gear, but until NOW, they haven’t had to.  You and I know they are slow dancing in a burning room, but they still saunter around and enjoy building a frustrated backlog of trapped customers.  This tells me the ‘customer servants’ can’t see the writing on the wall, or can’t read it, not sure which.

I felt SO GOOD the day I canceled my cable service, and while I was at it I fired their internet service too.  Icing on the cake.  Why?  Oh.  Glad you asked.

Once about 8 months ago I called to cancel cable because they were raping me on the cost AND they were charging that ridiculous amount to show me COMMERCIALS.  When I called  to fire them they asked, “So, why do you want to cancel your cable?”

I replied, “Because I am not going to pay to watch commercials.”

Now, I had some time and I knew they would do the shuffle to reel me back in, and I was curious how that would go.  So, smiling, I went along for the ride.  By the time she was finished, she had RAISED my already unacceptable bill by THIRTY DOLLARS.  So I said, “Hmmm.  Does that actually work with people who are calling to fire you?”

“What do you mean?” she asked.

I said, “People want to cancel because the bill is too high, so you RAISE the cost and they actually agree? Does that really WORK?”

She got very quiet.  Until she started typing again to try to make me happy watching commercials for a lower price.  Well she gave me some free movie channels and lowered my bill, so I stayed a while.  But when the free stuff ran out?  The bill was AMAZINGLY high.  In other words, they made up for free stuff in a big way…or thought they would.  I am not stupid and neither, as it turns out, are more and more customers.

So I fired them.

Here’s the deal.  Cable companies have raped their clients for years and they got away with that AND horrible customer service because they could.  Then when Hulu, Netflix and Youtube came on the scene they thought they could stick it to us again by hiring FRIENDLY people to rape us.  Once upon a time, that would have worked.  But NOW…we have other options.  Lots of them.

So cable is one market segment, the demise of which I plan to watch while I kick back, prop up my feet, pour a glass of red wine and celebrate.  I’ll be smiling, thinking about the jerks sweating bullets and scrambling to make it…you know, like we CUSTOMERS have done for years.  Only, I could turn in my cable equipment; they can’t turn in their mansions.

Good riddance cable.  Won’t miss you at all.  Oh and you other guys?  The replacements?  Learn something.  Because some of us have gotten used to no TV at ALL much of the time.  Tick tock.

Wanted: Experienced Realtors…

Just like other areas of life, there was a recent push to replace experienced real estate agents with “millennials”.  The thinking was that millions of home buyers would be people in this age cohort, that they would be THE buyers and that they would want to work with agents who were their peers.  Well that wasn’t on target, to put it mildly.  Many of the younger buyers are renting and paying off college loans, or even staying at home with Mom and Dad…not buying.  Real estate planners shouldn’t feel bad; retail made that mistake too.  Many of the millennials are educated, savvy, street smart and skeptical about anybody wanting their sparse cash.  They want details, they want to know their agent has a solid knowledge of the market and is well capable of walking them through the jungle of tasks associated with buying and selling a home.  In other words, millennials expect to be leaders and as such, their real estate agent had better be qualified to take that lead.

Millennials who do buy are not usually in the higher end market; rather, they are usually in the first time buyer and first time move-up buyer price range.  They, and other who ARE buying in the high end market do not want a “millennial” guiding the transaction.  Well, I’m a 10,000 foot view person.  I saw this stumble coming a mile and a half away.  Don’t get me wrong; I love young people.  The ones I get to meet and work with are very smart, very motivated and very sensible about buying.  They give  me hope for the future.  But young real estate agents are not well rounded, confident and knowledgable about the market just yet.  They deserve to grow and build a skill base, yes; but that doesn’t negate the value of experience.

So some of the same companies who were nudging the older agents aside are now actively recruiting experience.  It’s a shame that experienced agents are often overlooked by the ‘planners’ of the future of area market movement, and that that experienced agents are re-noticed only when the cavalry is needed.  But that’s how it goes.

My advice to you is this: Realize that you are making one of the largest transactions of your life, and that you should put that transaction in the hands of experience and knowledge.  That doesn’t mean someone who made a high score on the test, although that’s important.  It means someone who understands the nuances of the market beyond what the publications say.  It means someone who understands that prices in neighboring communities can be very different and why.  It means someone who has experience with inspectors and builders.  It means someone who knows how to spot hidden potential issues.  It means someone who knows what’s worth worrying about and what is not.  It means knowing the importance of pricing and how it impacts the overall market.  It means knowing how to put the most cash in your pocket at the end of the day.

I decided to write about this subject today because I have been working on a market analysis for the last several days, in a new growth-spurt area, where prices have jumped significantly in the last year.  I want to push my list price as high as I can…and be able to have it appraise at that value when the time comes.  This of course prompted a deep dive into that area and into that community, and a subsequent spreadsheet…mine, not a canned product.

One of the values I use, LOOSELY, I might add, is price per square foot.  And while this is the WRONG WRONG WRONG value to use in pricing a home, it does give you a nice snapshot of market activity at-a-glance, and it can be quite eye opening.  It was for me.  In my area of interest there were 3 of 14 homes I studied, which had VERY much lower sold price-per-square-foot.  This prompted me to look at the listing agency AND agent, and each case, the agent was inexperienced.  This costed the home owners/sellers a lot of money they could have made on their transactions and it hurt the overall market.  These low-ball prices will be put into the “comp” pot, and will be used by appraisers in pricing other homes for mortgages.  And this tells me nobody’s guiding these agents appropriately and nobody has told them the value of strong pricing.  Nobody has shared with them that listing with strong prices raises the entire market, which is actually our job…to protect the market.

So, while other home sold in the 118.00 price per square foot, these homes sold at around 108.  That adds up.  To loss for the sellers.  The moral of the story is this: If you hire inexperience, it will cost you.  You may never know it…which would be the best scenario.  If you do know it, you have to wonder where else you got short-changed.

I need to also say that sometimes it pays to price low if a quick sale is needed…for the SELLER, not the agent.  And that’s all I will say about that.

Bottom line: Be sure your agent is experienced enough to be a strong, successful advocate for you.  That’s what you are paying for.  This isn’t an opportunity to be trendy; this is your money at stake.  Experienced agents will understand that.

 

Real Estate and Millennials

I just read an article that says it’s hard to get ‘Millennials’ into the DIY stores these days, but hope springs eternal as the older ones in the cohort are reaching the median age for home buying.  That’s a mouthful.  It’s true that they are aging like the rest of us, and it gives me something else to watch swirl around the drain as the marketing folks miss the mark again.

Millennials are buying new homes much of the time, not old homes that need work, and their DIY days are way ahead of them.  I’ve watched business after business change their paradigm to cater to Millennials and fail miserably at it.  Why?  They don’t have a clue.  They read the articles that say Millennials are at shopping age OMG!  Well heads up people.  Millennials don’t shop.  They save, they pay student loan debt and they are not baby boomers who live beyond their means.

The impending focus by the big box DIY stores toward Millennials is just another example of how people get on the cart path, so to speak, trying to change things to satisfy the media hype, rather than paying attention to their clientele.  Look around you in the DIY stores.  There are no DJs or Wifi boutique areas.  It’s a big old tool and garden shop.  It smells like plywood and there’s always an aisle full of guys on their knees searching through the bin for that perfect screw or bolt.  Which still makes me go hmmmm.  And I don’t see any Millennials! Not one!  Could you envision one of them being interested in the LEAST about that perfect bolt?  Not unless you hide a cell phone in the bin as a prize.

It would benefit these businesses to look at JC Penney, for example, who tried to change everything to cater to the young people.  Look at their stock price real quickly.  I’ll wait.  See?  Disaster.  When JC Penney shut out their foundation clientele you could hear the toilet flushing their income stream.  It’s the older generation who are the bread and butter, the ones who made these stores ‘big box’ to start with.  They can change things around to be ready for Millennials to arrive, and they can listen to crickets chirping…you know like JC Penney did.

For DIY stores, it’s a bad idea to negate the needs of the foundational clientele, because they are older folks (and I mean over thirty) who have kids who need a nice yard in which to play, kids who make you need to paint, grandkids who break things and flush things that shouldn’t be flushed.  And Millennials don’t have kids or are just getting started and they don’t need yards.  But all of that aside, the Millennials are not shoppers. Not yet.  Electronics?  Yes.  But that’s about it for now.

They are not ready for big box DIY.  They couldn’t care less about planting a flower bed and if they do, chances are it will be neglected and die because…they have other things to do!  Fun things! They go to their friends’ weddings, or their wedding.  They go clubbing, they go biking and hiking, they date.  Or they get ready to date, or they start a family.  It’s that time of their lives.  DIY and flower beds are way out there on the radar, if at all.

Some of my all time favorite clients are Millennials.  They exhibit true partnership in choosing a home and defining a price range.  They never want to max out their purchase power; rather, they stay conservative and realize that they also want to continue to play, or think about starting a family.  They don’t need a palace to start with.  Don’t get me wrong, they want a nice home, but they are smart about it.  They plan to HIRE people to fix things because they are on their computers and iPads and iPhones…or Samsung Galaxies.   Millennials budget in repair people! They do not plan to be one.

Oh I know they WILL be one, but they don’t know that yet.

Millennials are tech savvy, not circular saw savvy.  They are VERY okay with electronic interaction, including documentation…which is my absolute preference…and they are fun.  They also have a true partnership.  They think about things together, each has input, and I swear, one person NEVER makes the decision without looking at the other and saying, “What do you think?”  And…you might find a Millennial doing some DIY but it’s usually because his father is helping him and Dad is the one shopping for plywood.  Young son has researched the issue online so he knows what’s going on, but it’s DAD who is doing the work.  Trust me.

On the flip side: There are some Millennials who buy fixer-uppers, but its to save money.  And when something breaks, they freak out.  They don’t run to the DIY center; they call Dad or somebody they know “who does this stuff”…usually NOT a Millennial.  True! Usually a parent or older friend with kids and a big truck and lots of bills who does this work to make extra money…not a Millennial paradigm at all.

And another thing: Better to start catering to women in these places because the Millennial women are strong and smart and engaged.  They will be one half of all buying decisions about those nuts and bolts when the time comes. That’s the cohort behavior.  A great idea would be to look at how many women are already shopping there and cater to them.  Right now.  The Millennials will be there in 15 years but if you look around, you will see a lot of  women in these places right now…but you won’t see them at the bolt bin. To us a bolt is a bolt.

I know, men think all casserole dishes are the same too.